Signed analysis, essays and explainers from Statevera.https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/en© 2026 Stateverahttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/nato-relearning-deterrence/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/nato-relearning-deterrence/After three years of war on its eastern flank, the alliance is rediscovering a doctrine it once thought solved: making aggression against any member too costly to attempt.Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukNATODeterrenceEuropean SecurityRussiaDefenceEuropeSecurityhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/new-balance-of-power-middle-east/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/new-balance-of-power-middle-east/How shifting alliances, military pressure and economic constraints are quietly redrawing the regional order — and why the old certainties no longer hold.Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukIranUnited StatesIsraelGulfSecurityDiplomacyMiddle EastGeopoliticshttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/ankara-pivot-turkey/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/ankara-pivot-turkey/Turkey has turned its position between Russia and the West from a vulnerability into a strategy. The question is how long the balancing act can survive a hardening of both fronts.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukTurkeyNATORussiaEuropean UnionEastern MediterraneanTurkeyDiplomacyhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/comparative-advantage-and-trade-theory/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/comparative-advantage-and-trade-theory/An academic summary of trade theory from Ricardo to the new trade theory — why states trade, who wins and loses, and what the theories say about tariffs and supply chains.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep Dorukeconomicstradecomparative advantagetheoryGlobalTheoryhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/the-sanctions-paradox/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/the-sanctions-paradox/Sanctions are the default instrument of great-power pressure. Their record suggests they change behaviour less often than they transform the structure of world trade.Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukSanctionsTradeGlobal EconomyRussiaChinaGlobalEconomyhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/strait-of-hormuz-under-pressure/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/strait-of-hormuz-under-pressure/A fifth of the world's oil moves through a 33-kilometre strait between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Everyone knows it. That is why it keeps being tested.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukEnergyIranGulfMaritime SecurityStrait of HormuzMiddle EastSecurityhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/trade-corridor-wars/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/trade-corridor-wars/The contest between Washington and Beijing is no longer decided in the Pacific alone. New ports, railways and digital corridors are turning the Global South into the competition's decisive theatre.Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukUS-ChinaTradeSupply ChainsIndo-PacificDevelopmentAsia-PacificEconomyhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/europes-defence-moment-opinion/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/europes-defence-moment-opinion/The debate about European defence spending keeps avoiding the real question. It is not how much Europe should spend. It is what Europe's military power is supposed to make possible.Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukEuropean SecurityNATODefenceOpinionEuropeOpinionhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/realism-core-theory-of-ir/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/realism-core-theory-of-ir/A concise academic summary of realism — classical realism, neorealism and the offensive-defensive debate — and how the theory explains the behaviour of states.Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukrealismtheorypoweranarchyIR theoryGlobalTheoryhttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/the-view-from-manila/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/articles/the-view-from-manila/The Philippines has transformed from a bystander to a frontline state in the Pacific competition. Its experience shows what the great-power contest looks like from the middle.Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukPhilippinesChinaSouth China SeaIndo-PacificAlliancesAsia-PacificGeopoliticshttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-is-article-5-of-nato/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-is-article-5-of-nato/The alliance's collective defence clause is the most famous sentence in Atlantic security. What it actually obliges, what it leaves open, and when it has been used.Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukNATOEuropean SecurityDeterrenceAlliancesExplainershttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/how-does-the-un-security-council-work/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/how-does-the-un-security-council-work/Five permanent members, fifteen seats, one veto. The council that writes the rules of international security is smaller and more conservative than most people imagine.Sat, 25 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukUnited NationsInternational LawDiplomacyInstitutionsExplainershttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-is-balance-of-power-theory/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-is-balance-of-power-theory/The oldest theory of international politics says states survive by preventing any one power from dominating. A guide to the idea that keeps shaping real policy.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukInternational RelationsTheoryGeopoliticsGreat PowersExplainershttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/why-does-the-strait-of-hormuz-matter/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/why-does-the-strait-of-hormuz-matter/A narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula carries a fifth of the world's oil. A short guide to the geography of energy security.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukEnergyMiddle EastMaritime SecurityGeopoliticsExplainershttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-are-economic-sanctions/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/what-are-economic-sanctions/The weapon of choice for states that want to coerce without fighting. How sanctions work, what they can do, and the limits that always appear in practice.Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukSanctionsTradeEconomic StatecraftDiplomacyExplainershttps://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/deterrence-vs-compellence/https://zeynepdorukk.github.io/explainers/deterrence-vs-compellence/Both words describe using threats to shape another state's behaviour. The difference between them explains why some threats work and others start wars.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMTZeynep DorukDeterrenceStrategySecurityInternational RelationsExplainers